The Seattle Police Department has released it’s major crime statistics for the first four months of this year.
Overall, major crimes are up from last year in the north precinct, with January seeing the biggest jump (blue is 2008, orange is 2009). 3824 major crimes have been reported in the north precinct so far, compared with 3359 in 2008. According to the North Precinct Crime Trend report (.pdf), “both robberies and aggravated assaults are up through April 2009 when compared with the same period in 2008.” Property crimes such as burglaries and larcenies are also up, while vehicle thefts are down by 138.
Crime stats released for first part of year
Times are tough….
That certainly excuses crime, especially criminal assaults
It certainly explains them. When people are desperate, they do desperate things.
Hmmm, but I was told, quite adamantly, over and over, that crime was down…
Now I'm really confused.
Stupid Hippie, times are indeed tough, too bad the justice system isn't.
In my humble opinion, the tougher times are, the better behaved most folks are. It can mean the difference between eating and starving, housing or homelessness, working or bumming, living or dying.
So, let's see what we can do to bring those numbers down.
This is a very poor graphic. The only thing that we can tell from it is that crime is up over last year; but how about from the year before or the year before that? Or how about from an average? Was last year a record low year or record high year as far as crime is concerned? Is the crime up just in the north or is it higher everywhere? What could be the cause of change from year to year? Are the measurements the same from year to year? Have policies changed from year to year.
While I can't find the statistics for the north precinct, citywide, last year (2008) was a lower than usual year for crime. 6% less than 2007 and 17% less than 2006.
http://www.seattle.gov/police/crime/08_Stats/20…
I think that we need more information.
I don't quite understand the “times are tough” reasoning for people bashing other people's faces in, breaking into cars, assaulting strangers on the street, etc. Down on their luck mom's and dad's are not running around beating people within an inch of their lives to buy diapers or formula, to pay rent or college tuition, or to buy new shoes. They more likely would resort to shoplifting, pilfering money from a cash register where they work, standing by the freeway with a “please help” sign, etc. then roaming around preying on average citizens on the street. I recently happened across a guy SITTING IN MY CAR, which was parked in broad daylight on a busy street in front of Greenlake. I confronted him and he said he was only trying to find a light for his cig. RIGHT. Most people would just ask someone for a light, not break into a car. He came prepared with some sort of metal device, which I suppose helps him look for “lights” better. He was a pro. Not a sympathetic dude just trying to get by. There has always been, and will continue to be crime in good times and bad. To chalk it all up to “times are tough” I think is a bit of a generalization. I'm willing to bet that whenever the economy finally starts to get better, the same people who get their thrills from victimizing innocent people will not have changed a bit.
The only thing this graph shows is that crime was up in January. Why? Who knows? Just about anything could have caused it.
Yes, crimes are up very slightly above last year's numbers for the other months, but the difference is so small that you can't draw a trend line from it. I agree with JM that we would need far more data to draw any kind of reasonable conclusions.
The data are also for the entire North precinct. The “crime wave” may be occurring in Northgate or Aurora or even Laurelhurst, while crime in Ballard has dropped. Or crime in Ballard may have skyrocketed, with corresponding decreases elsewhere. We just can't tell from the charts presented.
So there are no criminal assaults in good times? Maybe on your home planet but not this one.
I think the economy has a small part in the rise, maybe. Who knows? The crooks today may have still been crooks a few years ago. How do you measure something like that?
What? Only 9 comments so far? I thought for sure I'd be reading about a hundred “I told you so” comments, mixed in with a few “crime reporting is flawed” comments for a balanced dialogue. But you guys sure showed me, eh?
I wonder how much “crime” even gets reported. Two days ago a dude on a motorcycle stopped in front of my house, jumped off his bike and started wailing on a young kid. Just pummeling the shiv out of him in the middle of the street. We immediately called 911 to report it and the operator told us that they couldn't do anything. She asked if the victim asked us to call. it was fucking surreal. She told us that they couldn't do anything unless the victim called (while getting beat up i guess). At this point we have already gone out to help and other people are trying to stop it. It was actually over pretty quick because the kid was smart and started saying the dude's license plate number on his bike out loud while trying to defend himself from the blows. The dude then took off as we all approached. When the cops showed up (enough people called i guess… weird) they didn't even bother getting out of the car. they just sat in there and rolled the window down. They put about as much effort into police work as i do ordering fast food. This is typical by the way, last year when a guy broke into my wife's business while she was in it, she hid and called the police. When they pulled up to the front (he broke into the back room. It was that guy they caught a few months back.) they just rolled down the passenger window and tried to yell into the store. My wife yelled back, and i quote, “get the fuck out of your car you ridiculous civil servant and come do your job!” He did.
I told you so…
That is very bizarre the 911 operator said the VICTIM had to call himself…I mean, WTF???? Seriously! That goes above and beyond idiotic!! And about the cops not even getting out of the car on those occasions??? I must say, when I called 911 on the guy I found in my car, they sent an officer who actually took the enormous effort to get out of his vehicle and talk to me!!! I hope you raised holy hell with whatever powers that be over these incidents and the cavalier attitude taken by people employed to protect us. What utter BS. If I were you, I would contact a local news agency about the handling of the 911 call and the police “response” Really, heads need to roll for crap like that! UGH!
Thanks man, and I echo the apathy of our 'civil servants', they just don't give a rats ass, and the fish stinks from the head. Never forget that fact.
We are also dealing with years of apathy from our community, it has to stop.
Heh, heh. Your wife has some serious moxie. ;-)
When my nephew dialed 911 and hung up (for a reason I won't go into here) two police officers came in, guns drawn and treated it like my mother and my sister were armed terrorists. Overkill, maybe. That was about 5-6 years ago, though. Maybe the procedure has changed.
But aren't witnesses to a crime SUPPOSED to dial 911? That's strange what that dispatcher told you.
Yes, as I recall the police always have espoused “look out for each other” and call 911 if you see a crime in progress…I suppose that armored guard who was killed today should have dialed 911 himself, eh? Man, I am seriously disturbed by that operator's response. I wasn't even involved, but I feel like I want to research 911 operator's policies, and file a complaint! Who knows when someone's life will be lost or altered due to complete nonsensical inaction on the part of these “civil” servants???
According to this chart from the SPD website if the trend continues for the year we might get back to crime levels not seen since 2005 or 2006! I remember those dark years (tongue in cheek). And since most of the difference was only in January, it probably won't get anywhere near those levels.
http://www.seattle.gov/police/crime/TrendReport…
number of reported major crimes
2004 15607
2005 16761
2006 15313
2007 12483
2008 11272
So people don't panic. Just because someone on your street had their car broken into, it doesn't mean crime is up. January was a bad month according to the stats, but all the months since then have been very close to 2008 levels, which were record low.
there ya go, assuming that someones life has to be lost before they change…
…wait a minute…
sheeesh…that is what it takes >-(
It shows that crime was up all months in 2009, thus far, compared to last year.
Of course, I'm assuming that I can read a graph…
no, don't panic, in fact do nothing, it'll take care of itself…
what a bunch of 'nanny state' crap.
From the record low is irrelevant, for many reasons.
First, reporting hit a record low.
Convictions hit a record low.
Accountability hit a record low.
Nowhere to go but up ;-)
wasn't last year a 40 year low for crime in Seattle?
if you lock up all the criminals then only the innocent will commit crimes
-lifted quote
That is insane – sounds like you need to “Get Jesse” or somehow get the media in on those responses. Love your wife's response!
From what I've been told is that it's not so much that crime goes up in tough times, but that the borderline types are too busy in good times to have time or need to commit property crimes. Not to stereotype too much, but the guy who's been in a bit of trouble over the years can more easily get a good construction job in the boom time and have less incentive to get in trouble. When the jobs are gone and he's back to sitting on his butt with no money, he's a little more likely to take the bait from other criminals and get back in the petty theft and burglary racket. This doesn't apply to everyone, or even to that many, but it does happen.
I guess it's more of a case of boom times keep the likely criminal on the straight and narrow.
You definitely need to call in to the precinct during the day and talk to them about this. It sounds like a poorly trained 911 operator who is going to wind up getting someone killed.
We can dither around the stats all night, but I will point out that back in '04 and '05 we had EVERY SINGLE HOUSE on our block be the victim of at least one crime from burglary to car prowls, auto theft, and a couple attempted robberies. I'd rather not go back to that again thankyouverymuch.
The police didn't do a damn thing after we complained, well they did do one thing… after we kept complaining that there were no patrols despite repeated crime sprees they came by and wrote parking tickets to shut everyone up. Now every house has some combination of dog, alarm, or gun. The funny thing about this is that if you knew this block you'd think you were in one of the least crime prone parts of town.
It shows that it was way up in January, but the other 3 months are negligible. There could be all sorts of reasons for the statistical variations. I have a hard time believing any of it, why was it so increased for one month but not the others? One thing for sure though, it hasn't dramatically decreased.
Was the kid still around once the police showed up? They normally won't do anything without a victim, there is really no point taking a report and filling out massive paperwork if there isn't a victim around.
The 911 operator's response is a completely different story though, if there is an assault, they need to dispatch asap.
Where is your report that reporting hit a record low? If anything, all these people rallying on this blog probably got the reporting rate up. Where is the report that the conviction rate is down? And finally, where are all the reports about low accountability versus last year?
I'll bet you everyone that got arrested back in '04 and '05 got out. Too bad that are criminal justice system is a joke and doesn't actually reform people. Instead it costs us a lot of money to lock people up and then release them even worse than they were.
well, clearly the last year was the low, 11,272 reported crimes.
My assumption, true or not, is that the reporting didn't keep pace with the # of crimes, the conviction rate, the revolving door of the justice system, and many other factors lead to this increase this year.
Unless you have a report that shows differently, my belief is firm.
My point is, furthering the policies that got us here, will give us more of the same, not less.
Still, nowhere to go but up, imho.
https://www.myballard.com/forum/topic.php?id=904
Thanks for accepting the obvious. I was told that we'd see that crime would be way down this year, and that we'd be proven to be the fear-mongers that we are.
Anyway, these numbers do not please me at all. I just hope that people take this issue more seriously than they have.
Take a look at the remaining months of '08 on the graph, it doesn't take much to extrapolate that we could be seeing more than the numbers that we had this January. I would hope that we don't, and we do have the ability to turn this around. Whether or not we do, I don't know.
Edog, how is that 'thread-jacking'???
It sounds like a discussion to me.
Is that no longer aloud?
You seem to be one of the few reasonable folks…
However, you just 'jacked this thread'.
Just a call for civility!
crime reporting is flawed.
Someone had to say it.
Dog fight!
ok, I get it, 'home planet', sorry, I guess that was a jab.
I found it humorous, liked it, but it wasn't directed at me…so, you be the judge.
Stay cool.
Not only is it not chock-full of information, but you'll notice the numbers are absolute, NOT per capita. Per capita, crime might actually be down, assuming more population density in the North End.
Home Planet is uncivil? Wow, there is some really thin skin here. My suggestion is to get a humor transplant.
Yawn!
lol…so we keep most of the worst out on the street so that the average Joe doesn't turn into a thug…yeah, that makes a lot of sense…???